Minnesota Twins talk

All things relating to the Minnesota Twins

Silva v. Billingsley, first game of LAD series, Morneau

I wouldn’t call it a gem, but Silva pitched pretty good. 8 IP 6 H 2 ER 0 BB 3 Ks is the stat line. Opposing pitcher’s stat line: 5.2 IP 7 H 6 ER 7 BB (1 hit batter) 2 Ks.

Nothing much to rag on Torii with, other than the fact he got caught stealing.

Mauer had a career-high 5 RBIs on Monday night, including a triple (that some thought should have been an error) that scored 2.

It seems to me that the Twins strand a lot of runners. Too much. 213 over their past 15 wins, or about 14 per game. Do the Twins get that many guys on base, or do they just not produce real well with men on? I don’t really know, but it’s something to watch for, I guess.

A little on how hot Justin Morneau is this month: He’s never had less than a .300 OBP in any game this season, except the 3-game series at Seattle (where he went 1-9), and even then it was in the high .200s. His overall OBP for June is .402. *ramble* In case some of you don’t know, OBP is defined as “a measure of how often a batter gets to first base for any reason other than a fielding error or a fielder’s choice.” Ted Williams, who some consider the greatest hitter of all-time, had a career OBP of .481, so if Justin wants to be in that same category (which is highly unlikely), he needs to start hitting better.*end ramble* On a serious note, he’s improved in on-base percentage, slugging, and average each month this year. His OBP has climbed 128 points, while his slugging is up an incredible 308 points. His average is up 148 points, too.

Tuesday night’s game is Liriano (7-1, 2.17 ERA) against Derek Lowe (6-3, 2.90 ERA). Should be a real pitcher’s duel.

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7 Comments»

  ryfryfan wrote @

Do you mean Silva pitched pretty good or pretty well?? Your proofreader may have a little difficulty with that line!!

  Rebekah wrote @

I think that someone’s making fun of me. I’m really scared. At least I’m not afraid to leave my real name in the comments. For the record, I have a pet peeve about the phrase with “did good.” I even correct my mother:)

You do realize that your love-hate relationship with Torii is a paradox, don’t you? As long as the Twins as competitive, Torii stays. If they fall out of contention, he will be traded.

  frymaster wrote @

The Twins are competitive, but it is virtually impossible for them to win the division.
Let me quote a fellow blogger: “If the Tigers and White Sox simply play .500 baseball for the remainder of the season–they’ve won 67 percent and 66 percent of their respective games thus far–the Twins would have to go 56-32 (.636) to win the division”
So, even if the Twins finish 3rd in the division, they’ll keep him and pay him $12 million+ next year? And, it’s not a love-hate; it’s a hate relationship. I don’t like him, at all, we aren’t “brothers” or anything so there isn’t any brotherly love. I wish there was, but there just isn’t.

  Rebekah wrote @

I should have said love-hate with the Twins and Torii. I wasn’t even referring to his option for next year. If the Twins were to have a bad month in July, they would not be a competitive team. Torii could even ask to be traded.

As for statistics, the problem with your fellow blogger’s assumption is that he did not factor in the games that the Twins have with either team. The Twins have 11 games remaining with Chicago and 10 with Detroit. If Chicago wins 6 of these games and the Twins split with Detroit and both Detroit and Chicago win half of their remaining games (33 of 75), then the Twins would have to win 41 of their games to win the division for a total of 51 wins (91 overall). I did not factor in the games that Chicago and Detroit have left with eachother.

The problem with statistics lies in the assumptions that people make. They can sound impressive, but assumptions can be dangerous. One can’t assume that Detroit and Chicago will play .500 baseball or better in their remaining games. What if they play below .500? What if the Royals and Indians play spoilers against Chicago and Detroit? What if the Twins win all 21 games they have left with both teams? It would be much easier for them to be at the top of their division. Assumptions aren’t reality. They exist to make predictions easier. Even if you base your assumptions on past events, you can still manipulate statistics to get the desired result. Desired results are still not reality.

I’ll end my rant now, but if you’re interested check out riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/

This website explains why the magic number is not the best way to determine elimination from the playoffs.

  Sarah wrote @

Rebekah, why don’t you give frymaster a break? After all, you are a little more advanced than him in the education department. I think he is doing a great job and everyone has a right to their own opinion. I look forward to the recap each day. Keep it up frymaster!

  Rebekah wrote @

Ryan, I’m a sorry that I went on a rant. It wasn’t your opinion that I disagree with, but the quote. I should have just said to take the statistics (in the quote) with a grain of salt. My scenario doesn’t make it much easier on the Twins.

It really didn’t occur to me that you may not have even taken a statistics course yet. Maybe that’s because you do write well, much more confident than when I was your age.

I do think that you would like the website I mentioned.

  ryfryfan wrote @

Great writing, great opinions, great feedback, I just love this blog! We even have a little spice going back and forth. It doesn’t get any better. I’m jealous, why didn’t I start an opinion page regarding the Twins? It seems we all (well, those of us that enjoy the Boys of Summer) have something to say!


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